Note 2-5

5 As a case for reference, the 3-point forward moving average of the real economic growth rate, or the dependent variable, was estimated in order to reduce the possibility of adverse causal correlation where lower economic growth rates increase government spendings including public investment and unemployment benefits. For this reason, the estimate treated the data to ensure that the probability of this would be low. The results of the estimate in this case also yield the same conclusion, that there is a negative correlation between the size of government spending and the economic growth rate.