Note 3-10

10 If it is hypothesized that the nominal effective exchange rate of the yen rose 10% against the dollar, the exchange rate effect, keeping all other variables fixed, is as follows. The response pattern in the first phase since the 1980s (1983-1993) was that the export volume fell 5.8% and the import volume rose 1.3%. The response pattern in the second phase (1993-2003) was that the export volume dropped 8.4% and the import volume grew 5.9%. If this is applied to the export and import values for 2003, net exports in real terms after price adjustments fall about 4.5 trillion yen according to the 1980s response pattern and drop even more, or about 8.5 trillion yen, according to the 1990s response pattern. Similarly, nominal net exports fall about 4 trillion yen in the former and even more in the latter, or about 8 trillion yen.