Note 1-28

28 The Coordination Bureau of the Economic Planning Agency (2000) estimates that a 1% decrease in U.S. demand will translate into a slightly less than 0.2% decline in Japan' s GDP (The estimate does not make allowance for the multiplier effect. If indirect effects are taken into account, the impact may be slightly larger). Most of the growth estimates for the U.S. economy in 2002 made by private institutions before and after the series of terrorist attacks show a downward revision ranging from 0.5% to 1.5%. If this is the case, the impact on Japan will be limited to 0.1~0.3%. However, some pessimistic institutions made a downward revision of more than 2.0%. In this case, the impact on the Japanese economy will be larger.