Annual Report on the Japanese

Economy and Public Finance

2002-2003

- No Gains Without Reforms III -

October 2003

Cabinet Office

Government of Japan


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Reference Materials

Chapter 1

1. Section 1
   FRB (2002) "An Investigation of Co-movements among the Growth Rate of G-7 countries".

2. Section 2
    Fujiwara and Shinke (2003) "Analysis of Land Profit Ratio and Land Price-Lowering Factors", Cabinet Office, Economic Survey of Japan Discussion Papers, DP/03-2
    Economic Planning Agency (1989) "Economic Survey of Japan, 1988-1989".
    Economic Planning Agency (1999) "Economic Survey of Japan, 1998-1999".
    Nakayama and Oshima (1999) "Formation of Inflationary Expectations", Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan, Working Paper Series 99-7
    Takeaki Kariya (1986) "Concept of Econometric Analysis and its Reality", Toyo Keizai INC.
    Toshihisa Toyoda (1987) "Inflation: Formation of Inflationary Expectations and Phillips Curve", Hamada, Kuroda and Horiuchi eds. "Macroeconomic Analysis of Japanese Economy", University of Tokyo Press.
    Shinpo, Konishi and Oohira (1978) "Analysis of Stagflation by Monetarist Model", "Economic Analysis" Vol.72.
    Shimada, Hosokawa and Seike (1982) "Analysis of Wage and Employment Adjustment Process", "Economic Analysis", Vol.84.
    Shigeyuki Hamori (2000) "Econometrics", Chuokeizai-Sha.

3. Section 3
    Bank of Japan, Research and Statistics Department, Economic Statistics Division (2001) "Introductory Flow of Funds", Toyokeizai Shinpo-sha.
    Bank of Japan, Policy Planning Office (2002) "Role of Money Supply that can work for Monetary Policy Operations".

Chapter 2

1. Section 1
    G. Emery, Uga and Kawaguchi (1993) "Analysis of Business Credit and Company Relationship", Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance, "Financial Review" (March 1993)
    Okazaki and Horiuchi (1992) "Relationship between Corporate Equipment Investment and Main Banks"; Horiuchi and Yoshino eds. "Analysis of the Modern Japanese Finance", University of Tokyo Press.
    Bank of Japan (2002) Report of the "Study Group on the Securitization of Small to Medium Enterprises' Receivables", Financial Markets Department Working Paper Series, Bank of Japan, 2002-J-6 (July 2002).
    Hanasaki and Takeuchi (1997) "Characteristics of Equipment Investment Behavior of Japanese Corporations: International Comparison Based on Micro-Data", Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance, Financial Review (June 1997).
    Jensen, M. C., and W. H. Meckling (1976) "Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, and Ownership Structure," Journal of Financial Economics 3, pp. 305-360.
    Modigliani, F., and H. Miller (1958) "The Cost of Capital, Corporate Finance and the Theory of Investment," American Economic Review 48(3), pp.261-297.

2. Section 2
    Omura and Masuko (2000) "Ad Interim Report of the Questionnaire concerning Financing System and Corporate Governance of Japanese Companies" Policy Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance ed. (October 2000)
    Finance-receivable market conference (2003) "Loan Restructuring Market Conference Report" (March 2003)
    Masaya Sakurakawa (2002) "Economic Analysis of the Financial Crisis", University of Tokyo Press (June 2002)
    Japan Syndication and Loan-trading Association (JSLA)(2003) "Results of the Questionnaire concerning Finance-receivable Market for Business Corporations" JSLA Official Report Committee (April 2003)
    Mariko Fujii(2001) "A Note on the Financial System Analysis: A Functional View", Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Financial Review (September 2001)
    Noriyuki Yanagikawa (2000) "Economics of Contracts and Organizations", Toyokeizai Shimpo-sha
    Dewatripont, M. and E. Maskin (1995) "Credit and Efficiency in Centralized and Decentralized Economies," Review of Economic Studies 62, pp.541-555.

3. Section 3
    Ikeo and Seshimo (1998) "Systematic Framework for dealing with Companies' Bankruptcy", Miwa, Kanda and Yanagikawa eds. "Economics for Company Law", Chapter 8, pp.253-277, University of Tokyo Press.
    RECOF Corporation (2003) "Japanese Corporate M&A Data Book 1988-2002" RECOF Corporation (February 2003)
    Komiya and Amano (1972) International Economics, pp.435-436, Iwanami Shoten.
    Saita and Sekine (2001) "Sectoral Credit Shifts in Japan: Causes and Consequences of Their Decline in the 1990s", Research and Statistics Department of
    Bank of Japan, Working Paper 01-16
    Industrial Revitalization Corporation establishment preparation office (2003) "Q&A concerning Industrial Revitalization Corporation".
    Industrial Revitalization and Employment Policy Strategy headquarters (2002) "The Basic Guidelines about A Company and Industrial Revitalization" (December 19, 2002)
    Study Group for the Guideline for Multi-Creditor Out-of-Court Workouts (2001) "Guideline for Multi-Creditor Out-of-Court Workouts".
    Business Study Group for the Guideline for Multi-Creditor Out-of-Court Workouts (2002) "The Examination Result about the Guideline Employment".
    Cabinet Office "Industrial Revitalization: Lessons from the Northern Europe and Asia", (2003) "Trends of the World Economy, Spring 2003".
    Shinichi Hirota (1989) "The Insurance Offer Hypothesis of Main Banks in Japan", Doshisha University "Economics Discussion", Vol.41., No.3, pp.155-178.
    Study Group of Bad Loans Commissioned Companies (2001-02) "Asset Management Corporation for Dealing with Bad Loans Overseas", "Financial Affairs", Kinzai Institute for Financial Affairs, INC. (December 3, 10, 17, 2001 and January 7, 21, 2003)
    Horiuchi and Fukuda (1987) "What Role did Japanese Main Banks Play?", Bank of Japan, Financial Research Center "Financial Research", Vol.6., No.3, pp.1-28.
    Miyajima, Kondo and Yamamoto (2001) "Formation of Japanese Corporate System and its Transformation: Dispatching External Executives and Corporate Performance", Japan Center for Economic Research, "Japanese Economic Studies", No.43, pp.18-45.
    Akimitsu Fujii (2002) "Behavior Trends of Japanese Banks toward the Corporate Sector and Their Impact on the Economy", Development Bank of Japan, "Research Report", Vol.41 (August 2002).
    Tsutomu Miyagawa(2003) "The Lost Decade and Transformation of Industrial Structure: Why Are New Growth Industries Not Being Born?", Iwata and Miyagawa eds.,"Economics series; What is the Real Cause for the Lost Decade?", pp.39-61, Toyokeizai Shimpo-sha (June 2003).
    Diamond, D. (1984) "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, 51, pp.393-414.
    Kane, E.J. and Klingebiel, D. (2002) "Alternatives to Blanket Guarantees for Containing a Systemic Crisis," Paper presented at WB/IMF/FRB seminar on "Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector in the Context of Globalization," June 5-7, 2002, Washington, D.C..
    Klingebiel, D. (2000) "The Use of Asset Management Companies in the Resolution of Banking Crises: Cross-Country Experiences," World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2284
    Lilien, D.M. (1982) "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, 90, pp.777-793.
    Meyerman, G.E. (2003) "The London Approach and Corporate Debt Restructuring in East Asia," Managing Financial and Corporate Distress: Lessons from Asia, C. Adams, R.E. Litan, and M. Pomerleano ed., Brookings Institution Press.
    Pomerleano, M.(2003) "The Morning After: Restructuring in the Aftermath of an Asset Bubble," Asset Price Bubbles, Hunter, W. C., Kaufman, G. G., Pomerleano, M. ed., MIT Press.

4. Section 4
    OECD (2003) "Employment Outlook 2002"
    Omura, Iwaki, Mizugami, Sudo and Sugeta (2002) "The Disposal of Non-Performing Loans and Its Potential Influence II: With Emphasis on the Impact on Employment", Economic and Fiscal Policy Analysis Discussion Paper of the Cabinet Office-DP02-4
    Kato, Fujiwara and Fujimoto (2003) "The Disposal of Non-Performing Loans and its Influence on the Bankruptcy and Employment", Economic and Fiscal Policy Analysis Discussion Paper of the Cabinet Office- DP03-3.
    Takeshi Kimura (1999) "Review of the Downward Rigidity for the Nominal Wage: Is the Inflation to Some Extent necessary for the Labour Market to be Smoothly Worked?", Bank of Japan, Working Paper Series 99-4.
    Economic Planning Agency (2000) "Annual World Economic Report, FY 2000".
    Seiji Shimpo (2001) "Japanese Economy: Essential Factor for its Failure", Nihon Keizai Shinbun-sha.
    Cabinet Office (2003) "Intellectual Round-table Conference Report about Training of youth".
    Cabinet Office, edited by the Economic and Social Research Institute (2003) "Empirical Analysis in Connection with Job Creation and Unemployment", "Economic Analysis", No.168 (March 2003).
    Cabinet Office (2003) "White Paper on the National Lifestyle, FY 2003".
    The Japan Institute of Labour (2003) "Development of Working Support Policy for Youth in Foreign Countries: Case Study of the UK and Sweden", "Document series 2003, No.131".
    Hattori and Maeda (2000) "The Japanese Employment System", Bank of Japan "Bank of Japan Research Papers", January 2000.
    Yoshio Higuchi (2001) "Economics of Employment and Joblessness", Nihon Keizai Shimbun-Sha.
    Yoshio Higuchi (2001) "How Should We Establish Safety Nets for Employment?", Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
    Yoshio Higuch (2001) "Characteristics of Employment Policy and its Trends in Japan", "Economic Studies", April 2001.
    Ministry of Labour (2000) "Analysis of Labour Economy, FY 2000".
    Naonori Mitani (2001) "Structural Changes in the Youth Labour Market and Employment Policies--Experiences in OECD Countries", "The Monthly Journal of the Japan Institute of Labour", 2001.

Chapter 3

1. All sections
    Yoshihide Ishiyama (1998) "Economics for the Hyper-Aging Society", Nippon Hyoron-Sha.
    Economic Planning Agency (1995) "Economic Survey of Japan, 1994-1995".
    Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2003) "White Paper on Health, Labour and Welfare, 2003".
    The Keizai-keiei Gakkai, Kobe University (2002) "Special Issue: Economic and Social Analysis of Aging Population", The Kokumin-Keizai Zasshi (Journal of Economics & Business Administration), Vol.185, No.1.
    Ministry of Finance, Policy Research Institute (2000) "Progress in the Declining Birthrate and the Aging Society and Prospects for the Japanese Economy and Society", Research Report.
    National Institute for Research Advancement (1998) "The Economic Effects of an Aging Population and Shifts in the Fertility Rate; Economy and Demographic Changes".
    Matsutani and Fujimasa (2002) "Design of a Society with a Declining Population: Economics for an Affluent Future", Chukou-Shinsho.
    Yukihiro Matsuyama (2002) "Halving the Population: The Way of the Japanese Economy", Toyokeizai shimpo-sha.
    Yashiro, Oshio et al. (1997) "Economic Analysis of Japan's Aging Society", Institute for Economic Affairs of the Economic Planning Agency, "Economic Analysis", Vol.151.
    Naohiro Yashiro (1999) "Economics for the Declining Birthrate and Aging: Market-Driven Structural Reform", Toyokeizai shimpo-sha.

2. Section 1
    Hiroyuki Ida (2003) "The Japanese Society with an Increasing Number of Single Persons", Yosensha.
    Hiroshi Ohbuchi (2002) "Structural Transformation of the Declining Birthrate and Aging Society", Kokumin-Keizai Zasshi, Vol.185.,No.1.
    Hiroshi Ohbuchi (1997) "The Japanese Economy in the Era of a Declining Birthrate", NHK Press Association.
    Hisakazu Kato (2001)"Introductory Population Economics", Nippon-Hyoron-Sha.
    Satoshi Kawamoto ed. (2001) "Discussions on a Japan with a Declining Birthrate", Chuokoron-Shinsha.
    Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2002) "White Paper on Women's Labour, 2002".
    Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2003) "White Paper on the Labour and Economy, 2003".
    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ed. (2002) "Childcare Support in a Society with a Declining Birthrate".
    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Journal of Population Problems, Vol.57 No.4.
    Hiroshi Kojima (2002) "Comparative Study on the Trend of Declining Birthrate and Countermeasures in Industrial Nations".
    The Tax Commission, Japan (2003) "A Sustainable Tax System For Japan's Aging Society"
    The Tax Commission, Japan, Subcommittee on the Basic Issues, 23rd Meeting Documents (2003).
    Council for Gender Equality (2003) "Women's Efforts Support Policy".
    Cabinet Office "White Paper on the Aging Society", FY2002, FY2003.
    Cabinet Office (1997) "White Paper on the National Lifestyle, FY1997".
    Cabinet Office (2001) "White Paper on the National Lifestyle, FY2001".
    Cabinet Office "Annual Report on the State of Formation of a Gender-Equal Society", 2002 and 2003.
    Yasushi Harada (2001) "Economics of the Declining Population", PHP Research Institute.
    Yomiuri Shimbun (2003) "Special Issue: Society with a Declining Population"

3. Section 2
    Kitamura and Fujiki (1995) "Application of Panel Data Analysis for International Comparison Studies", "Journal of Monetary Issues, Vol.14, No.1", Research Institute for the Monetary Issues of Bank of Japan.
    Planning Bureau of Economic Planning Agency (2000) "Study Group on the Economy under the Declining Population", Interim Report.
    Sadahiro and Shimasawa (2002) "Analysis of Endogenous Growth under a Declining Population: Japan Case Studies; Simulation Analysis by the Generation Double Model", "National Economy", No.165.
    Masubuchi, Matsuya et al. (2002) "Analysis of the Social Security System by the Social Security Model", Economic and Fiscal Policy Analysis Discussion Paper Series, No.9 of the Cabinet Office.
    Matsuura, Watanabe and Uemura (1998) "Medium and Long Term Japanese Economic Growth: Focus on Impact of Decrease in Amount of Labour Input Accompanying Aging", Research and Statistics Department of Bank of Japan, Working Paper series.
    Feldstein,M., Horioka,C., (1980) "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows" Journal of Economics,90,314-329.

4. Section 3
(1) The whole of the Section 3.
    Takashi Oshio (2001) "Economics of Social Security, 2nd Ed.", Nippon-Hyoron-Sha.
    Council on the Social Security System (2003) "Opinions on Future Direction of Social Security Reform: Toward the Realization of a Social Security System for the 21st Century".
    Social Security Editorial Committee for the 21st Century (2001) ed. "Social Security for the 21st Century: Documents of the Expert Meeting for Discussing Ideal Social Security Structure", Chuohoki.
    Nippon Keidanren (Japan Federation of Economic Organizations)(2003)"Towards an Energetic and Attractive Japanese Society".
    Center for Economic and Public Policy Research ed., Japan Research Institute, Ltd., Research Division "Basic Concept of Taxation System and Social Security", Nippon Hyoron-Sha.
    Hatta and Yashiro eds. (1998) "Social Insurance Reform: The Re-design of Pension, Nursing Care, Medical Treatment and Employment Insurance", Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc.
    Yoshinori Hiroi (2001) "Social Security in Japan", Iwanami Shinsho.
    Hiroshi Miyajima (1992) "Social Economics for the Aging Era: Family, Corporations and Government", Iwanami Shoten.
    Masako Murakami (1999) "Economics of Social Security, 2nd Ed.", Toyokeizai Shimpo-Sha.
    Naohiro Yashiro and Japan Center for Economic Research (2003) "Economics of Social Security Reform", Toyokeizai Shimpo-Sha.

(2) Increase of National Burden Rate and Issues for Public Sector
    Asou and Yoshida (1996) "Generation-wise Benefits and Burdens in Generational Accounting", "Financial Review", March 1996, Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance.
    Iwamoto, Ozaki and Maekawa (1996) "Budget Deficit and Generational Accounting", Financial Review, March 1996, Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance.
    Toshiyuki Uemura (2001) "Economic Analysis of the Budget Burden", K.G. University Press.
    Planning Bureau of Economic Planning Agency (1996) "Reference for Budget and Social Security Issues".
    Cabinet Office (2001) "Annual Report on the Economy and Public Finance, FY2001".
    Yoshikawa, Takayama and Uemura (2000) "National Burden Rate and Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis by OECD Countries' Panel Data", Research and Statistics Department of Bank of Japan, Discussion Paper series, 00-6.
    Hiroshi Yoshida (1996) "Application of the General Accounting for the Local Finance", Financial Review, March 1996, Institute of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Ministry of Finance.
    Agell,J., Lindh,T., Ohlsson,H., (1997) "Growth and the Public Sector: A critical Review Essay" European Journal of Political Economy Vol.13 33-52.

(3) Reform of Administrative and Financial Organization by New Public Management (NPM).
    Study Group of New Administrative Management (2002) "Toward the Realization of New Administrative Management".
    Soshiro Ohsumi (1999) "New Public Management: Concept, Vision and Strategy", Nippon Hyoron-Sha.
    Soshiro Ohsumi (2002) "New Public Management: Theory and Practice of Strategic Administration", Nippon Hyoron-Sha.
    Ohsumi, Ueyama, Tamamura and Nagata (2003) "Japanese-style NPM: Challenges for Business Reform of Administration", Gyosei.
    Economic Planning Agency (2000) "Economic White Paper, FY2000".
    Honma and Saito (2001) "Reform of Local Government Finance: Application of New Public Management method", Yuhikaku.
    Miyagawa and Yamamoto (2002) "Public Governance: Reform and Strategy", Nippon Hyoron-Sha.

(4) Reform of the Public Pension System
    Ushimaru et al. (2000) "Concept of the Public Pension System and Direction of the Drastic Reform", Economic Research Institute of Economic Planning Agency, "Economic Analysis", Vol.161.
    Takashi Oshio (1998) "Concept of Privatization of Pensions", Nihon Keizai Shimbun-sha.
    Pension Bureau of the Ministry of Health and Welfare (1999) "Establishment of a Pension System for the 21st Century".
    Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2002) "Direction and Point of Issues on the Framework of Pension Reform".
    The Tax Commission (2003) "Establishment of an Ideal Taxation System in a Aging Society with a Declining Birthrate".
    Noriyuki Takayama (2000) "Pension Class: To the era when the national pension burden needs to be distributed".
    Kazuhiko Nishizawa (2003) "Major Reform of the Pension System: "Postponement" is no longer allowed", Nihon Keizai Shimbun-sha.

(5) Reform of the Medical Care System
    Institute for Health Economics and Policy (2002), Study Report on"Estimates of Health Expenditures based on the OECD System of Health Accounts and International Comparison".
    Edited by the Study Group of Medical Insurance System(2003)"White Paper on Real Medical Insurance: Current Situation of Medical Security and its Issues (2003)".
    Tadahiko Tokita (1995) "Japanese Health Economics", Toyokeizai Shimpo-sha.
    Tokita and Nakayama (2001) "Japanese Medical Care and Public Regulation", Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper, No.26.
    Tokita, Yamada et al. (2000) "Analysis of Determinants of Medical Supply and Demand by Inspection Check Data: National Health Insurance in 4 Prefectures including Hokkaido", "Economic Studies", Vol.51, No.4.
    Cabinet Office, Quality-of-Life Policy Bureau (2001) "Final Working Group Report on Medical Care Prices".
    Analytical Report of the Policy Impact by the Director General for Policy Planning and Coordination, No.16, "Economic Impact on Medical Services, Nursing Care, Childcare etc. by Regulation Reform: Estimation for considering the entry by private companies", (May 2003).
    Yoshinori Hiroi (1994) "Irou no Keizai-gaku (Health Economics)", Nihon Keizai Shimbun-sha.
    Yoshida and Ito (2000) "Impact of the revision of the health insurance system on attitudes toward receiving medical treatment", "Health Economics Study", Vol.7.

4. Columns
3-1 Acceptance of Foreign Workers and Immigrant Workers.
   Ministry of Health and Welfare, Council on Population Issues (1999)" Concerning measures relevant to the declining birthrate in many foreign countries".
   Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (2002) "Study Group Report on Employment Issues for Foreigners".
   OECD (2002) "Trends in International Migration".
3-3 Needs for Revitalization of Domestic Direct Investment.
   Report on Conference on Investment to Japan by Expert Group (2003) "Expert Group Report on Conference on Investment to Japan: Making Japan an Attractive Country for Global Companies".
3-4 Concept of the National Burden Rate.
   Yasuda Fire and Marine Insurance Memorial Foundation (1997) "Considering the National Burden Rate Issue: Presenting some problems to discuss regarding the National Burden Rate", Yasuda Fire and Marine Insurance Memorial Foundation series No.51.
3-5 Measures for NPM in advanced countries
   New Administrative Management Study Group (2002) "Toward the realization of New Administrative Management".
   Policy Research Institute of Ministry of Finance (2001) "Reform of Budget and Finance Management by Introducing the Ideas of Business and Management of the Private Sector: Experiences from the UK, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Sweden and the Netherlands".
   OECD (2002) "OECD Economic Surveys: New Zealand".
3-6 NPM in Local Government: Mie Prefecture.
   Shirakawa and Ono (2002) "Toward Reform of Local Governments by Introducing NPM", "Study Report" No.140, Fujitsu Research Institute.
   Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications, Local Administration Bureau (2001) "Working Situation of Administrative Evaluation in Local Governments and Public Organizations".
   Kozo Watanabe (2003) "Policy Evaluation System by Mie Prefecture", "ESP" May 2003, Mie Prefectural Government website: http://WWW.pref.mie.jp/.
3-7 Reform of Public Pension System in Sweden.
   Cabinet Office (2002) "Trends of the World Economy, Fall 2002".


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