Monthly Economic ReportExecutive Summary( Oct 2019 )
(Provisional translation)
(Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy)
The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace while weakness lasting longer mainly in exports.
- Private consumption is picking up.
- Business investment is on the increase at a moderate pace, while weakness is seen in machinery investment.
- Exports are in a weak tone.
- Industrial production is in a weak tone recently.
- Corporate profits hold firm at a high level. Firms' judgments on current business conditions continue increasing cautiousness, mainly among manufacturers.
- Employment situation is improving steadily.
- Consumer prices are rising at a slower tempo recently.
Concerning short-term prospects, weakness remains for the time being, but the economy is expected to continue recovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to situations in overseas economies including the tension over trade issues, the prospect of the Chinese economy and the outcome of the UK leaving the EU, the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets, and the situations of the consumer sentiment after the consumption tax increase. Also, full attention should be given to the economic impact of the successive natural disasters including Typhoon No. 19 of 2019.
(Policy stance)
The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation simultaneously, in addition to make effort toward the reconstruction and revitalization from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the restoration and reconstruction from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.
To this end, the Government will strengthen economic growth by boosting potential growth rate and expand virtuous cycle of growth and distribution based on the " Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2019 ~ A New Era of Reiwa: Challenges toward Society 5.0 ~ ", the " Action Plan of the Growth Strategy " and so on. Moreover, in order to create a society in which everyone plays an active role and feels secure, the Government will establish the social security system for all generations. Furthermore, the Government will pay careful attention to the economic trend after the consumption tax rate hike and take all possible measures towards economic and fiscal management ensuring that the hike will not affect the recovery trend of the economy.
The Government will accelerate the provision of support for the daily lives of those affected by the successive natural disasters including Typhoon No. 19 of 2019 and work to swiftly advance the restoration and reconstruction of the affected areas.
The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity, prices and financial conditions.
Detailed explanations
1. Demand trends such as consumption and investment
Private consumption is picking up.
Private consumption is picking up. Real wage income of employees is increasing moderately. Consumer confidence is in a weak tone.
The Synthetic Consumption Index, which synthesizes demand-side statistics (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, etc.) and supply-side statistics (Indices of Industrial Producer's Shipments, etc.),decreased by 0.1% in August from the previous month.
Concerning short-term prospects, consumption is expected to continue to pick up, supported by the improvement in the employment and income conditions. However, attention should be given to the effects of consumer confidence on consumption.
Business investment is on the increase at a moderate pace, while weakness is seen in machinery investment.
Business investment is on the increase at a moderate pace, while weakness is seen in machinery investment. The Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (April-June survey, including software investment) show that business investment increased in the April-June quarter of 2019 by 1.5% from the previous quarter. By industry, business investment decreased for manufacturers by 4.3% from the previous quarter and increased for non-manufacturers by 4.7%. Capital Goods Shipments and Imports, supply-side statistics, are almost flat, although weakness can be seen in some areas.
According to the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan (BOJ Tankan) (September survey), planned business investment for all industries in fiscal year 2019 is expected to increase. In BOJ Tankan, firms' judgment on production capacity indicates their sense of shortage on the whole, although no feelings of excess and insufficiency can be seen among manufacturers. The figures for Orders Received for Machinery, a leading indicator, show movements of picking up.
As for short-term prospects, business investment is expected to increase at a moderate pace, mainly reflecting a high level of corporate profits and actions in growth sectors and such. However, attention should be given to the effects of business confidence on investment.
Housing construction is in a weak tone recently.
Housing construction is in a weak tone recently. Construction of owned houses has shown weakness recently. Construction of houses for rent is moderately decreasing. Construction of houses for sale is almost flat. Total number of sales of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area is in a weak tone.
As for short-term prospects, housing construction is expected to remain in a weak tone for the time being.
Public investment is intensified.
Public investment is intensified. The amount of public construction completed in July decreased by 0.7% from the previous month, the amount of contracted public works in September decreased by 2.0% from the previous month, and the amount of public works orders received in August decreased by 6.1% from the previous month.
As for short-term prospects, public investment is expected to show steady movement due to the execution of related budgets.
Exports are in a weak tone. Imports are almost flat. The balance of goods and services is in approximate equilibrium.
Exports are in a weak tone. By region, exports to Asia, the U.S. and EU are in a weak tone. Exports to other regions are almost flat. As for short-term prospects, exports are expected to pick up, mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies and such. However, attention should be given to the effects of situations over trade issues on the world economy, and the uncertainty in overseas economies including the prospect of Chinese economy.
Imports are almost flat. By region, imports from Asia, the U.S. and EU are almost flat. As for short-term prospects, imports are expected to pick up.
The balance of goods and services is in approximate equilibrium.
For the goods in August, the imports value has decreased than the exports value, so that the surplus has expanded. The margin of the deficit in the balance of services has decreased.
2. Corporate activities and employment
Industrial production is in a weak tone recently.
Industrial production is in a weak tone recently. The Indices of Industrial Production decreased by 1.2% from the previous month in August. The Indices of Industrial Inventories decreased by 0.1% from the previous month in August. The Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing expects an increase of 1.9% in September, and a decrease of 0.5% in October.
By industry, transport equipment is flat recently. Production machinery is almost flat. Electronic parts and devices are bottoming out.
As for short-term prospects, production is expected to pick up, though attention should be given to situations of the global economy, especially China.
Corporate profits hold firm at a high level. Firms' judgments on current business conditions continue increasing cautiousness, mainly among manufacturers. The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.
Corporate profits hold firm at a high level. According to the Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (April-June survey), corporate profits during the April-June quarter of 2019 decreased by 12.0% from the previous year and decreased by 5.0% from the previous quarter. By industry, manufacturers and non-manufacturers saw a decrease of 27.9% and 1.5% respectively in corporate profits from the previous year. By size of company, large and medium-sized companies saw a decrease of 16.5% from the previous year, and small companies saw an increase of 4.4%. According to the BOJ Tankan (September survey), in fiscal year 2019, sales are expected to increase by 1.2% in the first half of the year, and are expected to increase by 0.2% in the second half from the previous year. Current profits are expected to decrease by 9.2% in the first half and decrease by 3.9% in the second half from the previous year.
Firms' judgments on current business conditions continue increasing cautiousness, mainly among manufacturers. The BOJ Tankan (September survey) revealed that firms' judgment on current business conditions deteriorated for all enterprises in all industries as that for all enterprises in the manufacturing industry deteriorated while that for all enterprises in the non-manufacturing industry was flat. Firms' judgment on future business conditions, which indicates the business condition as of December, becomes more cautious than that on current business conditions. According to the corporate activity-related DI of the Economy Watchers Survey (September survey), current business conditions rose while prospective business conditions fell.
The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.
The employment situation is improving steadily.
Employment situation is improving steadily. Meanwhile, the sense of a labor shortage is at a high level. The total unemployment rate was 2.2% in August, the same level as the previous month. The labor force and the number of employed persons increased while the number of unemployed persons was flat.
The number of employees is increasing moderately. The number of new job offers is almost flat. Active job openings to applicants ratio has been decreasing recently. Overtime hours worked in the manufacturing industry have been in a weak tone recently.
As for the movement of wages, contractual cash earnings and the total amount of cash earnings are increasing moderately.
According to the BOJ Tankan, firms ' judgment on current employment conditions showed that the labor shortage remained severe, mainly among non-manufacturers.
As for short-term prospects, the employment situation is expected to improve steadily.
3. Prices and the financial market
Producer prices are declining moderately. Consumer prices are rising at a slower tempo recently.
Producer prices are declining moderately.
According to the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey (multi-person households), the ratio of households which forecast a rise in prices was 87.6% in September, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month
As for short-term prospects, consumer prices (general, excluding fresh food and energy) are expected to start rising moderately.
As for stock prices, after declining from the 22,000-yen level to the 21,300-yen level, the Nikkei Stock Average rose to the 22,400-yen level. The yen against the U.S. dollar (inter-bank spot rate), after moving in the direction of appreciation from the 108-yen level to the 106-yen level, moved in the direction of depreciation to the 108-yen level.