Monthly Economic ReportExecutive Summary( Apr 2019 )
(Provisional translation)
(Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy)
The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace while weakness is seen recently in exports and industrial production in some sectors.
- Private consumption is picking up.
- Business investment is increasing.
- Exports are in a weak tone recently.
- Industrial production is almost flat, and weakness is seen in some sectors.
- Corporate profits improvement appears to be pausing, although they remain at a high level. Firms' judgment on current business conditions shows cautiousness, mainly among manufactures.
- The employment situation is improving steadily.
- Consumer prices are rising moderately in recent months.
Concerning short-term prospects, weakness remains for the time being in some areas, but the economy is expected to continue recovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the effects of situations over trade issues on the world economy, the prospect of the Chinese economy, the uncertainty of situations and policies in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.
(Policy stance)
The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation simultaneously, in addition to make effort toward the reconstruction and revitalization from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the restoration and reconstruction from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.
To this end, the Government steadily implements the "Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2018", the "Growth Strategy 2018" and so on. Moreover, in order to establish the social security system oriented to all generations under which people of all generations can live at ease and work, the Government will promote comprehensive reform of the system including the labor system. Futhermore, looking ahead to the consumption tax rate hike planned for October 1, 2019, the Government will take all possible measures towards economic and fiscal management.
The Government will implement the FY2018 first and second supplementary budget and the FY2019 budget including the temporal and special measures swiftly and steadily.
The Government continuously pursues to expand the economic virtuous cycles which cover local areas, SMEs and small-scale businesses, through directing growing corporate profits towards investment, wage increase and further improvement in the employment situation.
The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity and prices.
Detailed explanations
1. Demand trends such as consumption and investment
Private consumption is picking up.
Private consumption is picking up. Real wage income of employees is increasing moderately. Consumer confidence is in a weak tone.
The Synthetic Consumption Index, which synthesizes demand-side statistics (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, etc.) and supply-side statistics (Indices of Industrial Producer's Shipments, etc.), decreased by 0.3% in February from the previous month.
Concerning short-term prospects, consumption is expected to continue to pick up, supported by the improvement in the employment and income situations.
Business investment is increasing.
Business investment is increasing. The Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (October-December survey), demand-side statistics, show that business investment increased in the October-December quarter of 2018 by 3.3% from the previous quarter. By industry, business investment increased for manufacturers by 8.8% from the previous quarter and increased for non-manufacturers by 0.2%. Capital Goods Shipments and Imports, supply-side statistics, have shown some weak movements recently.
According to the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan (Tankan) (March survey), planned business investment for all industries in fiscal year 2018 is expected to increase. Planned business investment for fiscal year 2019 is also expected to increase. In Tankan, firms' judgment on production capacity indicates their sense of shortage. The figures for Orders Received for Machinery, a leading indicator, have been in a weak tone recently. The planned amount of construction is increasing moderately.
As for short-term prospects, business investment is expected to continue increasing, mainly reflecting the improvement of corporate profits and actions in growth sectors.
Housing construction is almost flat.
Housing construction is almost flat. Construction of owned houses shows movements of picking up. Construction of houses for rent is moderately decreasing. Construction of houses for sale is almost flat. Total number of sales of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area is almost flat.
As for short-term prospects, housing construction is expected to remain in flat for the time being.
Public investment is in a weak tone.
Public investment is in a weak tone. The amount of public construction completed in January increased by 1.6% from the previous month, the amount of contracted public works in March decreased by 7.7% from the previous month, and the amount of public works orders received in February decreased by 31.2% from the previous month.
As for short-term prospects, the supplementary budget is expected to be gradually producing effects.
Exports are in a weak tone recently. Imports are almost flat. The balance of goods and services is in approximate equilibrium.
Exports are in a weak tone recently. By region, exports to Asia are in a weak tone recently. Exports to the U.S. is showing the movements of picking up recently. Exports to EU are almost flat. Exports to other regions are in a weak tone. As for short-term prospects, exports are expected to pick up, mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies. However, attention should be given to the effects of situations over trade issues on the world economy, and the uncertainty in overseas economies including the prospect of Chinese economy.
Imports are almost flat. By region, imports from Asia and EU are almost flat. Imports from the U.S. show movements of picking up. As for short-term prospects, imports are expected to pick up.
The balance of goods and services is in approximate equilibrium.
For the goods in February, the exports value has increased than the imports value, the surplus has expanded. The services have turned to surplus.
2. Corporate activities and employment
Industrial production is almost flat and weakness is seen in some sectors.
Industrial production is almost flat and weakness is seen in some sectors. The Indices of Industrial Production increased by 1.4% from the previous month in February. The Indices of Industrial Inventories increased by 0.5% from the previous month in February. The Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing expects an increase of 1.3% in March, and an increase of 1.1% in April.
By industry, transport equipment has a pause observed in their movements of growth. Production machinery is in a weak tone. Electronic parts and devices are on a decline recently.
As for short-term prospects, production is expected to pick up, though attention should be given to situations of the global economy, especially China.
Corporate profits improvement appears to be pausing, although they remain at a high level. Firms' judgment on current business conditions shows cautiousness, mainly among manufactures. The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.
Corporate profits improvement appears to be pausing, although they remain at a high level. According to the Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (October-December survey), corporate profits during the October-December quarter of 2018 decreased by 7.0% from the previous year and decreased by 5.1% from the previous quarter. By industry, manufacturers and non-manufacturers saw a decrease of 10.6% and 4.9% respectively in corporate profits from the previous year. By size of company, large and medium-sized companies and small companies saw a decrease of 5.5% and 11.1% respectively from the previous year. According to the BOJ Tankan (March survey), in fiscal year 2019, sales are expected to increase by 1.2% in the first half of the year and are expected to increase by 0.5% in the second half from the previous year. Current profits are expected to decrease by 3.6% in the first half and increase by 2.6% in the second half from the previous year.
Firms' judgment on current business conditions shows cautiousness, mainly among manufactures. The Tankan (March survey) revealed that firms' judgment on current business conditions deteriorated for all enterprises in all industries as that for all enterprises in the manufacturing industry deteriorated while that for all enterprises in the non-manufacturing industry was flat. Firms' judgment on future business conditions, which indicates the business condition as of June, becomes more cautious than that on current business conditions. According to the corporate activity-related DI of the Economy Watchers Survey (March survey), current and prospective business conditions both fell.
The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.
The employment situation is improving steadily.
The employment situation is improving steadily. Meanwhile, the sense of a labor shortage is at a high level. The total unemployment rate was 2.3% in February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The labor force and the number of employed persons increased while the number of unemployed persons decreased.
The number of employees is increasing moderately. The number of new job offers has been increasing recently. The effective ratio of job offers to applicants is almost flat. Overtime hours worked in the manufacturing industry have been in a weak tone recently.
As for the movement of wages, contractual cash earnings and the total amount of cash earnings are increasing moderately.
According to the BOJ Tankan (March survey), firms' judgment on current employment conditions showed that the labor shortage remained severe.
As for short-term prospects, the employment situation is expected to improve steadily.
3. Prices and the financial market
Producer prices are rising moderately in recent months. Consumer prices are rising moderately in recent months.
Producer prices are rising moderately in recent months.
Consumer prices, in terms of general, excluding fresh food and energy, are rising moderately in recent months.
According to the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey (multi-person households), the ratio of households which forecast a rise in prices was 86.4% in March, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
As for short-term prospects, consumer prices (general, excluding fresh food and energy) are expected to rise moderately for the time being.
As for stock prices, after declining from the 21,600-yen level to the 20,900-yen level, the Nikkei Stock Average rose to the 22,200-yen level. The yen against the U.S. dollar (inter-bank spot rate), after moving in the direction of appreciation from the 110-yen level to the 109-yen level, moved in the direction of depreciation to the 111-yen level.