Monthly Economic ReportExecutive Summary( Nov 2017 )
(Provisional translation)
(Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy)
The Japanese economy is on a moderate recovery.
- Private consumption is picking up moderately.
- Business investment is picking up.
- Exports are picking up.
- Industrial production is picking up.
- Corporate profits are improving. Firms' judgment on current business conditions is improving.
- The employment situation is improving.
- Consumer prices are flat.
Concerning short-term prospects, the economy is expected to recover, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the uncertainty in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.
(Policy stance)
The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation simultaneously, in addition to make effort toward the reconstruction and revitalization from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the restoration and reconstruction from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. To this end, the Government steadily implements the "Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2017", the "Growth Strategy 2017", the "Regulatory Reform Work Plan", and the "Basic Policies for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy in Japan 2017", and the "Japan's Plan for the Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens". Moreover, the Government will work to formulate a new economic policy package at the beginning of December to specify the initiatives of the two pillars of Human Resources Development and Supply System Innovation. In addition, the Government will compile the FY2017 supplementary budget to properly deal with additional fiscal demand including disaster response. About work style reform, based on the "The action Plan for the Realization of Work Style Reform" decided in March, the Government will promptly try to rivise the Act regarding establishing a Sophisticated Professional System and revising the Discretionary Working System for Management-related Work, in addition to submit bills to the Diet at an early date.The Government continuously pursues to expand the economic virtuous cycles which cover local areas, SMEs and small-scale businesses, through directing growing corporate profits towards investment, wage increase and further improvement in the employment situation by these measures.
The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity and prices.
Detailed explanations
1. Demand trends such as consumption and investment
Real GDP (gross domestic product) in the July-September quarter of 2017 increased by 0.3% on a quarterly basis (at an annual rate of 1.4%), posting positive growth for the seventh consecutive quarter. Nominal GDP increased by 0.6% on a quarterly basis, posting positive growth for the second consecutive quarter.
Private consumption is picking up moderately.
Private consumption is picking up moderately. Real wage income of employees is increasing moderately. Consumer confidence is picking up.
The Synthetic Consumption Index, which synthesizes demand-side statistics (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, etc.) and supply-side statistics (Indices of Industrial Producer's Shipment's, etc.), decreased by 0.4% in September from the previous month.
Concerning short-term prospects, consumption is expected to pick up, supported by the improvement in the employment and income situations.
Business investment is picking up.
Business investment is picking up. The Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (April-June survey) show that business investment decreased in the April-June quarter of 2017 by 2.8% from the previous quarter after increasing in the January-March quarter of 2017 by 0.9%. By industry, business investment decreased for manufacturers by 5.4% from the previous quarter, and decreased for non-manufacturers by 1.4%. Capital Goods Shipments and Imports, supply-side statistics, are picking up.
According to the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan (Tankan) (September survey) and the Business Outlook Survey (July-September survey), planned business investment for all industries in fiscal year 2017 is expected to increase. The figures for Orders Recieved for Machinery, a leading indicator, show movements of picking up.
As for short-term prospects, business investment is expected to increase, mainly reflecting the improvement of corporate profits and actions in growth sectors.
Housing construction is flat.
Housing construction is flat. Construction of owned houses is in a weak tone. Construction of houses for rent is flat. Construction of houses for sale is almost flat. In addition, the total number of sales of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area is almost flat.
As for short-term prospects, housing construction is expected to remain flat for the time being.
Public investment shows steady performance.
Public investment shows steady performance. The amount of public construction completed in September decreased by 0.7% from the previous month, the amount of contracted public works in October decreased by 4.9% from the previous month, and the amount of public works orders received in September decreased by 29.6% from the previous year.
As for short-term prospects, public investment is expected to show steady performance due to the execution of related budgets.
Exports are picking up. Imports appear to be pausing. The surplus in the balance of goods and services is on an increasing trend.
Exports are picking up. By region, exports to Asia are picking up. Exports to the U.S. show movements of picking up. Exports to EU and other regions are almost flat. As for short-term prospects, exports are expected to continue to pick up, mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies.
Imports appear to be pausing. By region, imports from Asia appear to be pausing. Imports from the U.S. and EU are almost flat. As for short-term prospects, imports are expected to pick up.
The surplus in the balance of goods and services is on a increasing trend.
The surplus in the balance of trade in September decreased, as export values decreased while import values increased. The deficit in the balance of services increased.
2. Corporate activities and employment
Industrial production is picking up.
Industrial production is picking up. The Indices of Industrial Production decreased by 1.0% from the previous month in September. The Indices of Industrial Inventories remained flat from the previous month in September. The Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing expects an increase of 4.7% in October, and a decrease of 0.9% in November.
By industry, transport equipment and general-purpose, production and business oriented machinery are picking up. Electronic parts and devices are increasing moderately.
As for short-term prospects, production is expected to continue to pick up mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies.
Corporate profits are improving. Firms' judgment on current business conditions is improving. The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.
Corporate profits are improving. During the July-September quarter of 2017, the current profits of the listed companies increased from the previous year both for manufacturers and non-manufacturers. According to the BOJ Tankan (September survey), in fiscal year 2017, sales are expected to increase by 3.1% in the first half of the year, and are expected to increase by 1.4% in the second half from the previous year. Current profits are expected to increase by 5.2% in the first half, and decrease by 6.3% in the second half from the previous year.
Firms' judgment on current business conditions is improving. The Tankan (September survey) revealed that firms' judgment on current business conditions has improved for all enterprises in all industries. Firms' judgment on future business conditions, which indicates the business condition as of December, becomes more cautious than that on current business conditions. According to the corporate activity-related DI of the Economy Watchers Survey (October survey), the assessment of current and prospective business conditions rose.
The employment situation is improving.
The employment situation is improving. The total unemployment rate was 2.8% in September, the same level as the previous month. The labor force and the number of employed persons increased, while he number of unemployed persons increased.
The number of employees has been increasing. The number of new job offers has been increasing. The effective ratio of job offers to applicants is increasing. Overtime hours worked in the manufacturing industry are almost flat.
As for the movement of wages, contractual cash earnings are picking up. The total amount of cash earnings is increasing moderately.
As for short-term prospects, the employment situation is expected to improve.
3. Prices and the financial market
Producer prices are rising moderately recently. Consumer prices are flat.
Producer prices are rising moderately recently.
Consumer prices, in terms of general, excluding fresh food and energy, are flat.
According to the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey (multi-person households), the ratio of households which forecast a rise in prices, was 77.5% in October, an increase of 1.3% points from the previous month.
As for short-term prospects, consumer prices (general, excluding fresh food and energy) are expected to rise moderately, but they are expected to remain flat for the time being.
As for stock prices, after rising from the 21,700-yen level to the 22,900-yen level, the Nikkei Stock Average declined to the 22,500-yen level. The yen against the U.S. dollar (inter-bank spot rate), after moving in the direction of depreciation from the 113-yen level to the 114-yen level, moved in the direction of appreciation to the 111-yen level.