Monthly Economic ReportExecutive Summary( Jul 2017 )
(Provisional translation)
(Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy)
The Japanese economy is on a moderate recovery.
- Private consumption is picking up moderately.
- Business investment is picking up.
- Exports is picking up.
- Industrial production is picking up.
- Corporate profits is improving. Firms' judgment on current business conditions is improving.
- The employment situation is improving.
- Consumer prices are flat.
Concerning short-term prospects, the economy is expected to recover, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the uncertainty in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets.
(Policy stance)
The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation simultaneously, in addition to make effort toward the reconstruction and revitalization from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the restoration and reconstruction from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. To this end, the Government steadily implements the "Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2017", the "Growth Strategy 2017", the "Regulatory Reform Work Plan", and the "Basic Policies for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy in Japan 2017", and the "Japan's Plan for the Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens". About work style reform, based on the "The action Plan for the Realization of Work Style Reform" decided in March, the Government will promptly try to rivise the Act regarding establishing a Sophisticated Professional System and revising the Discretionary Working System for Management-related Work, in addition to submit bills to the Diet at an early date. And the government implements "Economic Measures for Realizing Investment for the Future" and the FY2016 supplementary budget swiftly and steadily in order to overcome deflation completely and pave the way for steady economic growth. The Government also implements the FY2017 budget swiftly and steadily.The Government continuously pursues to expand the economic virtuous cycles which cover local areas, SMEs and small-scale businesses, through directing growing corporate profits towards investment, wage increase and further improvement in the employment situation by these measures.
The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity and prices.
Detailed explanations
1. Demand trends such as consumption and investment
Private consumption is picking up moderately.
Private consumption is picking up moderately. Real wage income of employees is increasing moderately. Consumer confidence is picking up.
The Synthetic Consumption Index, which synthesizes demand-side statistics (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, etc.) and supply-side statistics (Indices of Industrial Producer's Shipments, etc.), decreased by 0.3% in May from the previous month.
Concerning short-term prospects, consumption is expected to pick up, supported by the improvement in the employment and income situations.
Business investment is picking up.
Business investment is picking up. The Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (January-March survey) show that business investment increased in the January-March quarter of 2017 by 1.3% from the previous quarter after increasing in the October-December quarter of 2016 by 3.5%. By industry, business investment decreased for manufacturers by 1.8% from the previous quarter, and increased for non-manufacturers by 3.0%. Capital Goods Shipments and Imports, supply-side statistics, are picking up.
According to the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan (Tankan) (June survey) and the Business Outlook Survey (April-June survey), planned business investment for all industries in fiscal year 2017 is expected to increase. The figures for Orders Received for Machinery, a leading indicator, appear to be pausing.
As for short-term prospects, business investment is expected to increase, mainly reflecting the improvement of corporate profits and actions in growth sectors.
Housing construction has been flat recently.
Housing construction has been flat recently. Construction of owned houses has shown a steady undertone recently. Construction of houses for rent has been flat recently. Construction of houses for sale is almost flat. In addition, the total number of sales of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area is almost flat.
As for short-term prospects, housing construction is expected to remain flat for the time being.
Public investment is intensified.
Public investment is intensified. The amount of public construction completed in April increased by 2.1% from the previous month, the amount of contracted public works in June decreased by 8.6% from the previous month, and the amount of public works orders received in May increased by 34.9% from the previous year.
As for short-term prospects, public investment is expected to show steady performance due to the execution of related budgets.
Exports are picking up. Imports show movements of picking up. The surplus in the balance of goods and services is almost flat.
Exports are picking up. By region, exports to Asia are picking up. Exports to the U.S. and other regions are almost flat. Exports to the EU show movements of picking up. As for short-term prospects, exports are expected to continue to pick up, mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies.
Imports show movements of picking up. By region, imports from Asia show movements of picking up. Imports from the U.S. and EU are almost flat. As for short-term prospects, imports are expected to pick up.
The surplus in the balance of goods and services is almost flat.
The surplus in the balance of trade in May increased, as import values decreased to a greater extent than export values. The balance of services moved to deficit.
2. Corporate activities and employment
Industrial production is picking up.
Industrial production is picking up. The Indices of Industrial Production decreased by 3.6% from the previous month in May. The Indices of Industrial Inventories remained unchanged from the previous month in May. The Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing expects an increase of 2.8% in June, and a decrease of 0.1% in July.
By industry, transport equipment and general-purpose, production and business oriented machinery are picking up. Electronic parts and devices are increasing.
As for short-term prospects, production is expected to continue to pick up mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies.
Corporate profits is improving. Firms' judgment on current business conditions is improving. The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.
Corporate profits is improving. According to the Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (January-March survey), corporate profits during the January-March quarter of 2017 increased by 26.6% from the previous year and by 2.7% from the previous quarter. By industry, manufacturers saw an increase in corporate profits of 70.3%, and non-manufacturers saw an increase 10.7%. By size of company, large and medium-sized companies saw an increase of 41.3% from the previous year, and small companies saw an increase of 5.5%. According to the BOJ Tankan (June survey), in fiscal year 2017, sales are expected to increase by 3.0% in the first half of the year, and are expected to increase by 1.1% in the second half from the previous year. Current profits are expected to decrease by 0.8% in the first half, and decrease by 7.3% in the second half from the previous year.
Firms' judgment on current business conditions is improving. The Tankan (June survey) revealed that firms' judgment on current business conditions has improved for all enterprises in all industries. Firms' judgment on future business conditions, which indicates the business condition as of September, becomes more cautious than that on current business conditions. According to the corporate activity-related DI of the Economy Watchers Survey (June survey), the assessment of current and prospective business conditions rose.
The number of corporate bankruptcies is almost flat.
The employment situation is improving.
The employment situation is improving. The total unemployment rate was 3.1% in May, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The labor force and the number of unemployed persons increased while the number of employed person decreased.
The number of employees is flat. The number of new job offers is almost flat. The effective ratio of job offers to applicants is increasing. It is the highest level after February 1974. Overtime hours worked in the manufacturing industry are almost flat.
As for the movement of wages, contractual cash earnings are picking up. The total amount of cash earnings is increasing moderately.
According to the BOJ Tankan (June survey), firms' judgement on current employment conditions showed that the labor shortage remained severe.
As for short-term prospects, the employment situation is expected to improve.
3. Prices and the financial market
Producer prices are rising moderately. Consumer prices are flat.
Producer prices are rising at a slower tempo recently.
Consumer prices, in terms of general, excluding fresh food and energy, are flat.
According to the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey (multi-person households), the ratio of households which forecast a rise in prices was 79.2% in June, an increase of 1.2% points from the previous month.
As for short-term prospects, consumer prices (general, excluding fresh food and energy) are expected to rise moderately, but they are expected to remain flat for the time being.
As for stock prices, after declining from the 20,100-yen level to the 19,900-yen level, the Nikkei Stock Average rose to the 20,100-yen level. The yen against the U.S. dollar (inter-bank spot rate), after moving in the direction of depreciation from the 111-yen level to the 114-yen level, moved in the direction of appreciation to the 113-yen level.