Monthly Economic ReportExecutive Summary( April 2015 )
(Provisional translation)
(Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy)
The Japanese economy is on a moderate recovery, as improvement can be seen in the corporate sector.
- Private consumption holds firm as a whole.
- Business investment is almost flat.
- Exports show movements of picking up recently.
- Industrial production is picking up.
- Corporate profits show an improvement. Firms’ judgment on current business conditions is almost flat, while signs of improvement can be seen in some areas.
- The employment situation shows a trend toward improvement.
- Consumer prices are flat.
Concerning short-term prospects, the economy is expected to recover, supported by the effects of downfall in oil prices and the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation show a trend toward improvement. However, attention should be given to the downside risks of the Japanese economy including slowing down of overseas economies.
(Policy stance)
The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation simultaneously, in addition to accelerate the reconstruction from the Great Earthquake. To this end, the Government steadily implements “Basic Policies for the Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2014” and “Japan Revitalization Strategy Revised in 2014”. Moreover, the Government decided “the list of action to facilitate passing-on of prices by supplier companies and enhancing productivity of service industries” at “Seiroshi” (Government, Labor, and Corporate Management) meeting on April 2nd. The Government continuously pursues to expand the economic virtuous cycles which cover local areas, SMEs and small-scale businesses, through directing growing corporate profits towards business investment, wage increase and further improvement in the employment situation by these measures.The Government swiftly and steadily implements “Immediate Economic Measures for Extending Virtuous Cycles to the Local Economies” and the FY2014 supplementary budget to target at vulnerable parts of the current economy and intend to solve such vulnerabilities as soon as possible.
And the Government also works for smooth and steadily implementation of the FY2015 budget.
The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity and prices.
Detailed explanations
1. Demand trends such as consumption and investment
Private consumption holds firm as a whole.
Private consumption holds firm as a whole. The factors behind this include steady movements of real gross income of employees, while consumer sentiment is picking up.
The Synthetic Consumption Index, which synthesizes demand-side statistics (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, etc.) and supply-side statistics (Indices of Industrial Producer's Shipments, etc.), decreased by 0.1% in February from the previous month.
Concerning short-term prospects, consumption is expected to remain steady for the time being, supported by the improvement trend in the employment and income situations.
Business investment is almost flat.
Business investment is almost flat. The Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (October-December survey), show that business investment increased in the October-December quarter of 2014 by 0.6% from the previous quarter. By industry, business investment increased for manufacturers by 1.8% from the previous quarter, and decreased for non-manufacturers by 0.1%. Capital Goods Shipments, supply-side statistics, are picking up.
According to the Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan (Tankan) (March survey), planned business investment for manufacturers in fiscal year 2015 is expected to increase for five consecutive years, and that for non-manufacturers and all industries is expected to decrease for the first time in four years. According to the Business Outlook Survey (January-March survey), planned business investment in fiscal year 2015 is expected to increase for large manufacturers, and decrease for large non-manufacturers. The figures for Orders Received for Machinery, a leading indicator, are showing movements of picking up.
As for short-term prospects, business investment is expected to increase, mainly reflecting the improvement of corporate profits.
Housing construction has shown a steady undertone.
Housing construction has shown a steady undertone. Construction of owned houses has shown movements of picking up. Construction of houses for rent and houses for sale is almost flat. In addition, the total number of sales of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area is picking up.
As for short-term prospects, housing construction is expected to show steady movement. However, movements of construction costs, etc. should be closely monitored continuously.
Public investment is in a weak tone.
Public investment is in a weak tone. The amount of contracted public works in March decreased by 12.4% and the amount of public works orders received in February decreased by 8.9% from the previous year. The amount of public construction completed in the October-December quarter of 2014 decreased by 0.3% from the previous quarter, and that in January increased by 3.6% from the previous year, and decreased by 0.3% from the previous month.
As for short-term prospects, public investment is expected to be weak.
Exports show movements of picking up recently. Imports are almost flat. The deficits of the balance of goods and services are on a decreasing trend.
Exports show movements of picking up recently. By region, exports to Asia and the U.S. show movements of picking up recently. Exports to EU and other regions are flat. As for short-term prospects, exports are expected to pick up gradually, mainly reflecting the moderate recovery of overseas economies. However, it should be noted that there are risks of a downturn in overseas economies.
Imports are almost flat. By region, imports from Asia are flat. Imports from the U.S. show movements of picking up. Imports from EU are almost flat. As for short-term prospects, imports are expected to pick up gradually.
The deficit in the balance of goods and services is on a decreasing trend.
The deficit in the balance of trade in February turned negative, as export values decreased and import values slightly decreased. The deficit in services decreased.
2. Corporate activities and employment
Industrial production is picking up.
Industrial production is picking up. The Indices of Industrial Production decreased by 3.1% from the previous month in February. The Indices of Industrial Inventories increased by 1.1% from the previous month in February, an increase for the first time in three months. Also, the Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing expects a decrease of 2.0% from the previous month in March, and an increase of 3.6% in April.
By industry, transport equipment and general-purpose, production and business oriented machinery are showing movements of picking up. Electronic parts and devices are growing at a slower pace.
As for short-term prospects, production is expected to be on a pickup trend.
Corporate profits show an improvement. Firms' judgment on current business conditions is almost flat, while signs of improvement can be seen in some areas. The number of corporate bankruptcies is decreasing at a moderate pace.
Corporate profits show an improvement. According to the Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (October-December survey), corporate profits during the October-December quarter of 2014 increased by 11.6% from the previous year and by 10.0% from the previous quarter. By size of company, large and small companies saw increases of 8.7% and 19.0% in corporate profits from the previous year, respectively. According to the BOJ Tankan (March survey), sales in fiscal year 2015 are expected to increase for six consecutive years, and current profits are expected to increase for four consecutive years.
Firms' judgment on current business conditions is almost flat, while signs of improvement can be seen in some areas. The Tankan (March survey) revealed that firms' judgment on current business conditions is almost flat for all enterprises in all industries. Firms' judgment on future business conditions, which indicates the business condition as of June, deteriorated from that on current business conditions. Various surveys showed that firms' judgment on current business conditions is almost flat, while signs of improvement can be seen in some areas. According to the corporate activity-related DI of the Economy Watchers Survey (March survey), current business conditions rose, while prospective business conditions fell.
The number of corporate bankruptcies is decreasing at a moderate pace.
The employment situation shows a trend toward improvement.
The employment situation shows a trend toward improvement. The total unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 3.5% in February. The total unemployment rate of those aged 15 to 24 was 6.3%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The number of employed persons increased, while the labor force and the number of unemployed persons decreased.
The number of employees is on an upward trend recently. The number of new job offers shows movements of picking up and the effective ratio of job offers to applicants is increasing. Overtime hours worked in the manufacturing industry are picking up.
As for the movement of wages, contractual cash earnings show steady movement. The total amount of cash earnings is increasing moderately.
According to the BOJ Tankan (March survey), firms' judgment on current employment conditions showed that the labor shortage increased.
As for short-term prospects, the employment situation is expected to continue to show a trend toward improvement.
3. Prices and the financial market
Producer prices are flat recently. Consumer prices are flat.
Producer prices are flat recently.
Consumer prices, in terms of general, excluding fresh food, petroleum products and other specific components (referred to as "core core"), are flat.
According to the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey (general households), the ratio of households which forecast a rise in prices decreased from the previous month in February.
As for short-term prospects, consumer prices (core core) are expected to remain flat for the time being, partly due to the effects of the drop in oil prices and movement of the yen in the direction of depreciation.
As for stock prices, after declining from the 19,700-yen level to the 19,000-yen level, the Nikkei Stock Average rose to the 19,800-yen level. The yen against the U.S. dollar is mostly staying at the 119-yen level or the 120-yen level.