Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis, etc.

These projections are conducted by the Cabinet Office, using the “Economic and Fiscal Model” twice a year. The main results provide the middle- to long-term macroeconomic and fiscal prospects such as GDP, inflation, government’s primary balance and outstanding debt for different economic scenarios.
The projections are intended to contribute to the discussion of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy by checking the progress towards the targets of economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation.

Latest Materials

• Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis (Executive Summary) (Provisional translation by Cabinet Office) (January. 22, 2026) (PDF:261KB)

• Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis (Provisional translation by Cabinet Office) (January. 22, 2026) (PDF:1176KB)

"Economic and Fiscal Model" (Only available in Japanese)

• Economic and Fiscal Model (FY 2026) (PDF:1256KB) (Only available in Japanese)

Archives (Older materials are here)

"Long-term Projection for Economy, Public Finance and Social Security"

• Summary of Material #5 in the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (April. 2, 2024) (PDF:672KB) *The name of the scenarios are revised from those shown in the original material.

"Medium- to Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections under Japan's Growth Strategy"

• Medium- to Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections under Japan's Growth Strategy (Submitted to the Joint Session of the 8th meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy in 2026 and the 5th meeting of the Council for Japan's Growth Strategy)(June. 24, 2026) (PDF:526KB)
• (Reference) Impact of Japan's Growth Strategy on the TFP Growth Rate (Submitted to the Joint Session of the 8th meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy in 2026 and the 5th meeting of the Council for Japan's Growth Strategy)(June. 24, 2026) (PDF:143KB)