Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis, etc.

This projection presents the medium- to long-term economic and fiscal projection estimated by Cabinet Office, the government of Japan. It is submitted to the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy (CEFP) as the foundational information for implementing appropriate macroeconomic and fiscal management and assessing the economic and fiscal trajectories aimed in “Medium- to Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Plan”—spanning from FY2027 to FY2040— of the “Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2026” . It also provides the foundation for demonstrating the presumptions, effects of policies, and risks of “responsible and proactive public finances” to the public and market participants.

This page also provides other projections conducted in the past, including the "Long-term Projection for Economy, Public Finance and Social Security" and the "Medium- to Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections under Japan's Growth Strategy".

Latest Materials

Economic and Fiscal Model

The following material is the instruction manual of Economic and Fiscal Model which is used for the "Economic and Fiscal Projections for Medium to Long Term Analysis" and other projections.

Long-term Projection for Economy, Public Finance and Social Security

With Japan's working-age population (aged 15-64) expected to decline at an accelerated pace in the 2030s, "Long-term Projection for Economy, Public Finance and Social Security" was submitted to the CEFP on April 2, 2024, to clarify the conditions needed to achieve sustainable growth and ensure the sustainability of social security and public finance.

Medium- to Long-Term Economic and Fiscal Projections under Japan's Growth Strategy

Following the instructions from the prime minister at the CEFP on May 11, 2026, projections for Japan's economic and fiscal developments until FY2040 are made to estimate the effects of the government making additional spending each fiscal year in line with Japan’s Growth Strategy, which is centered on a comprehensive push to stimulate domestic investment, etc. The projections are based on the Basic Principles for a Fundamental Reform of the Budget Formulation Process discussed at the CEFP on April 13 and use the “Economic and Fiscal Model.”
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