Monthly Economic ReportExecutive Summary( July 2010 )
(Assessment of the current state of the Japanese economy)
Although the economy has been picking up steadily and the foundation for a self-sustaining recovery is being laid, it remains in a difficult situation such as a high unemployment rate.
- * Exports are increasing moderately. Industrial production is picking up.
- * Corporate profits are improving. Business investment is leveling off.
- * Firms' judgment on current business conditions is improving. However, firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are cautious about the immediate future.
- * While the employment situation remains severe, movements of an incipient recovery can be seen recently.
- * Private consumption is picking up.
- * Recent price developments show that the Japanese economy is in a mild deflationary phase.
As for short-term prospects, although some severe aspects remain in the employment situation, the economy is expected to be headed for a self-sustaining recovery as corporate profits continue to improve, reflecting improvement in overseas economies and the effects of policy measures including the Emergency Economic Measures. On the other hand, attention should be given to the risks that the economy is depressed by a possible slowdown in overseas economies, especially in the Unites States and Europe, fluctuations in the financial and capital markets, and the influence of deflation. It should also be noted that there is still concern that the employment situation could deteriorate.
(Policy stance)
Based on the "New Growth Strategy", the government implements policy management to get Japanese economy back on a path toward a full-scale recovery and to terminate deflation. On June 22nd, the government approved the "Fiscal Management Strategy", which set new fiscal consolidation targets.
Placing top priority on casting off deflation, the government will work as one with the Bank of Japan to launch vigorous and comprehensive policy efforts. The government expects the Bank of Japan to make the utmost efforts toward the termination of deflation by sharing basic perspectives on macroeconomic management.
Detailed explanations
1. Demand trends such as consumption and investment
Private consumption is picking up.
Private consumption is picking up due to the effects of policy packages. Consumer confidence is showing movements of improvement. Real income of employees is almost flat. The Synthetic Consumption Index which synthesizes demand-side statistics (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, etc.) and supply-side statistics (Indices of Industrial Producer's Shipments, etc.) decreased in May in comparison to April.
As for short-term prospects, private consumption is expected to show move steadily, reflecting the effects of policy packages, while employment and income environments remain stable.
Business investment is leveling off.
Business investment is leveling off. The Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, demand-side statistics, show that business investment increased in the October-December quarter of 2009, before decreasing in the January-March quarter of 2010. Capital goods Shipments, supply-side statistics, are increasing.
According to the Bank of Japan short-term business sentiment survey (tankan), planned business investment in fiscal 2010 is expected to increase for the first time in three years for both large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers. The figures for Orders Received for Machinery, a leading indicator, are showing movements of picking up.
As for short-term prospects, business investment is expected to pick up as corporate profits are improving, though the sense of excessive capital stock remains.
Housing construction had picked up, but has been flat recently.
Housing construction had picked up, but has been flat recently. Construction of owned houses had picked up, but has been flat recently. Construction of houses for rent is in a weak tone. Construction of houses for sale is picking up.
As for short-term prospects, housing construction is expected to move steadily, reflecting the effects of policy packages, while employment and income environments remain stable.
Public investment has been generally sluggish.
Public investment has been generally sluggish.
The amount of contracted public works in June 2010 and public works orders received in May 2010 were lower than in the previous year.
As for short-term prospects, public investment is expected to be generally sluggish in view of the budget situations of the national and local governments.
Exports are increasing moderately. Imports are picking up moderately. The surplus in the trade and services balance has been flat.
Exports are increasing moderately. By region, exports to Asia are increasing moderately. Exports to the U.S. have been flat. Exports to the EU are picking up. As for short-term prospects, it is expected that exports will continue to show an upward trend for the time being since the world economy is recovering moderately.
Imports are picking up moderately. By region, imports from both Asia and the U.S. are increasing moderately. Imports from the EU have been flat.
As for the international balance of payments, the surplus in the trade account has been flat, while both export and import values have increased. The deficit in the services account has been flat, thus leading the surplus of the trade and services balance to be flat.
2.Corporate activities and employment
Industrial production is picking up.
Industrial production is picking up.
As for short-term prospects, production is expected to continue to pick up for the time being, reflecting an upward trend in exports. Also, the Survey of Production Forecasts expects an increase both in June and July.
Corporate profits are improving. Firms' judgment on current business conditions show improvement. However, firms, especially small enterprises, are cautious about the immediate future. The number of bankrupt companies has been almost flat.
According to the Quarterly Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, corporate profits during the January-March quarter of 2010 increased by 163.8% in comparison with the previous year, thus an increase for the second consecutive quarter, against a backdrop of a pickup in sales. By type of industry, the manufacturing industry moved into profit, and profits in the non-manufacturing industry increased by 5.2%. According to the BOJ Tankan, fiscal 2010 sales are expected to post an increase for the first time in three years, and fiscal 2010 current profits are expected to post an increase for the first time in four years.
The BOJ Tankan shows firms' judgments on current business conditions as having improved. Both large manufacturers and large non-manufacturers' judgments on current business conditions improved for the fifth consecutive quarter. Small manufacturers and small non-manufacturers' judgments on current business conditions improved for the fourth consecutive quarter. However, firms, especially small enterprises, are cautious about the immediate future.
The number of bankrupt companies has been almost flat.
The employment situation still remains severe, while movements of an incipient recovery can be seen recently.
The employment situation still remains severe, while movements of an incipient recovery can be seen recently.The total unemployment rate hovered at a high 5.2% in May, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The total unemployment rate of those aged 15 to 24 was 10.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The number of new job offers and the effective ratio of job offers to applicants have been showing movements of picking up. The number of employees has been almost flat recently. Overtime hours worked in the manufacturing industry have increased, reflecting a pickup in production.
As for the movement of wages, contractual cash earnings have been showing movements of picking up. The total amount of cash earnings is starting to level off.
3.Prices and the financial market
Domestic corporate goods prices have risen moderately. Consumer prices continue to decline moderately.
Domestic corporate goods prices have risen moderately.
Consumer prices, in terms of "general, excluding fresh food, petroleum products and other specific components" (referred to as "core core"), continue to decline moderately.As for short-term prospects, consumer prices (core core) are expected to remain on a moderate downward trend.Taken together, these movements show that the Japanese economy is in a mild deflationary phase in that the decline in prices is continuing.
As for stock prices, after declining from the 10,200-yen level to the 9,100-yen level, the Nikkei Stock Average rose to the 9,700-yen level, and thereafter it is declining to the 9,400-yen level. The yen against the U.S. dollar moved in an upwardly direction from the 90-yen level to the 87-yen level, before dropping back to the 89-yen level, and thereafter it appreciated again, moving to the 87-yen level.